Tracking Future Trends Of Maternal Mortality For Afghanistan Using The Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Afghanistan from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.6 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual MMR will continue on a downward trajectory but remain very high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities to adopt the suggested 5- fold policy prescription.