Maternal Mortality Projections For Azerbaijan Using The Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Azerbaijan from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.6 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will continue to decline and reach levels around 20 deaths per 100 000 live births by 2035. Therefore, we encourage authorities to address local causes of avoidable maternal deaths and improve surveillance of severe maternal morbidity.