Forecasting Maternal Mortality For Albania Using The Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Albania from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.7 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate maternal mortality will remain very low throughout the forecast period. Hence, authorities are implored to relentlessly address major drivers of preventable maternal deaths across the country