Maternal Mortality Forecasting For Bahrain Using The Double Exponential Smoothing Approach

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Bahrain from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.3 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will remain low in the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities to attend to local causes of maternal deaths.