Use Of Double Exponential Smoothing Forecasts To Inform The Maternal And Child Health Program In Barbados

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Barbados from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will continue to drop and reach levels around 30 deaths per 100 000 live births by 2035. Therefore, we encourage authorities to relentlessly support the maternal and child health program and direct more effort towards surveillance of severe maternal morbidity across the country.