Maternal Mortality Prediction For The Bahamas Using The Double Exponential Smoothing Method

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on MMR for the Bahamas from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.2 and 0.2 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR is likely to increase and remain high over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities to address local factors associated with maternal deaths and ensure availability of adequate medical supplies at all levels of healthcare.