Analyzing Future Trends Of Maternal Mortality For Antigua And Barbuda Using The Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Antigua and Barbuda from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.6 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR is likely going to increase slightly in the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities to address major causes of maternal deaths and direct resources towards quality improvement activities across the country.