Detecting Future Trends Of Maternal Mortality In Algeria Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Approach

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Algeria from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will continue to decline and reach levels below 30 deaths per 100 000 live births by 2035. Therefore, there is need for continuous implementation of quality improvement initiatives coupled with continuous training and retention of medical staff to ensure adequate staffing levels at all levels of care.